Colonization Potential of Oaks under Climate Change

by Elizabeth Medford

While the impact of climate change on a variety of animal populations and their ranges has been studies extensively in the past, the study of the impact of warming on tree species also provides useful information for policymaking. A variety of different modeling systems apply different variables and make predictions about tree species distribution in the future as temperatures rise. In this study however, Prasad et al. (2013) combine two different commonly used technologies to overcome the constraint of computation time and allow assessment of colonization potential for oak species. Four oak species were chosen to focus on because they are strongly climate-driven species: black oak, post oak, chestnut oak, and white oak. Using the DISTRIB and SHIFT models together the authors were able to determine the future dominant forest types in the northeastern United States. This study determined that even under optimistic conditions ignoring some influential factors, only a small fraction of suitable oak habitat is likely to be occupied by oaks within 100 years. The authors urge that the information garnered in this study be used to inform assisted migration practices for vulnerable tree species. They additionally call for further studies focusing on how each individual species will adapt to increases in temperature. Continue reading