Could Doubling CO2 Increase Earth’s Temperature by 9 Degrees C?

by Emil Morhardt

That is the assertion of a paper in Nature by Carolyn W. Snyder (Snyder, 2016) based on an analysis of the correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changes in the global average surface temperature (GAST) over the past 800,000 years. Actually the assertion is that the 95% “credible interval” is 7 to 13 degrees Celsius (12.6 to 23 degrees Fahrenheit) Yikes! Even the current scientific consensus value of something on the order of 3 C (5.4 F) (Collins et al., 2013) is frightening when you consider that the difference in the GAST between the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago and at present wasn’t much different than that. Continue reading

Modelling Influence of Climate Change on Global Malaria Distribution

by Amelia Hamiter

Malaria is an infectious disease which has significantly affected global human populations throughout history. Its impact declined greatly throughout the 20th century in many regions due to extensive intervention efforts, though it continues to be found in tropical areas such as parts of Africa. Like other vector-borne diseases, though, the distribution and “seasonal activity” of malaria could potentially be altered by global climate change. One way to prepare for changes in patterns of malaria outbreaks is to model scenarios of change under different climate outcomes. Continue reading