Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease, Queensland, Australia


Infectious diseases, particularly those that are transmitted by mosquitoes, are of special interest for public health officials because of the possible consequences of climate change on the incidence of such diseases. There are many different diseases that are of concern, such as dengue and malaria, but the one of focus for this paper is Barmah Forest Virus (BFV). On the coast of Queensland, Australia, Naish and her colleagues (2013) acquired data on the number of BFV cases, climate temperatures, rainfall levels, tidal levels, and socio-economic circumstances in the area during the years 2000—2008. In combination with climate prediction grids for 2025, 2050, and 2100, the analysts modeled possible BFV distributions at both the current climate levels and under possible forecasted climate changes, finding large expected changes in the BFV distribution. Predicting future locations of BFV occurrence can facilitate prevention planning.–Posted by Sarah King

Naish S., Mengersen K., Hu W., Tong S., 2013. Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia. PLoS ONE. Continue reading