Distribution of West Nile Virus, United States

by Sarah King

West Nile virus (WNV) is a relatively new disease in North America, and consequently there is very little information available about how climate change will affect its distribution. In order to gain a better understanding, Ryan J. Harrigan and his colleagues modeled the incidence of the disease under current climate conditions (2003–2011) to predict how it will spread in the future (2013). The models proved to give a significantly accurate prediction for 2012 WNV distributions. They also projected the range of WNV for 2050 and 2080, which showed that predicted warmer temperatures and decreased precipitation would expand the range of WNV beyond its current bounds. The model and its predictive capabilities may help public health and policy officials prepare for and mitigate possible future outbreaks of WNV. Continue reading

Climatic Impacts on Japanese Encephalitis, Three Gorges Dam, China

by Sarah King

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a prevalent, mosquito-borne infectious disease found throughout the Asian Pacific Rim and Southeast Asia and most predominately in China (Bai et al. 2014). The Chinese province Chongqing has one of the highest incidence rates of JE in the country in combination with only four other provinces, make up 50% of the incidence of JE in all of China, with only 26% of the population. Consequently, Chongqing is an interesting place to study the effect of climatic change on Japanese encephalitis, which is exactly what Yuntao Bai and his colleagues did. Bai and his team set out to identify the most important climatic variables that induce the transmission and spread of the JE virus in Chongqing from 1997–2008, and what kind of geographical incidence patters arise in relation to climate change (Bai et al., 2014). Continue reading

Asian Tiger Mosquitoes Expanding in Northeastern US

by Sarah King

Mosquitoes are known for dispersing many different kinds of diseases that affect human health. Asian tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus), originating in Southeast Asia, are among the most invasive and widespread species of mosquitoes in the world. This species has been the cause of the reemergence of several mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and dengue, and in the United States it is largely responsible for the reemergence of West Nile Virus. Using census information, temperature data, precipitation data, CO2 emissions forecasts, and generated maps of Ae. albopictus population distributions, Rochlin and his collgues (2013) statistically modeled projections of Ae. albopictus expansion through the next seventy years (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). Their modeling shows that the range of Ae. albopictus will grow over the next seventy years to Continue reading