by Ali Siddiqui
The International Panel on Climate Change has indicated that rising temperatures in Brazil, due to its location in topical and subtropical areas, will cause setbacks in its agricultural industry. Filho and Moraes (2015) wanted to understand not only the relationship between climate change and agriculture production, but also the greater impact of climate change on the Brazilian economy. They take into account the benefits that would come to sugarcane and cassava, as well as look at the effects on the Brazilian labor market, by attempting to examine how climate change affects how income is distributed. Their model is based on three distinct databases that are the Brazilian-output and input table, Brazilian National House survey, and the Brazilian expenditure survey, and incorporates previous models. One noted flaw in their design is that the base framework for their model is data collected in 2005. Therefore, adaptations to climate change that may have taken place after the projections had been forecasted-for example, effects on crop viability-may not have been included leaving room for improvement in the future.
One of their conclusions from taking samples across the Brazilian region is that despite the increasing temperatures, the southeastern region is affected the least. The reasoning is due to the high volume production of sugar cane, a crop with high resistivity typically unaffected by a loss of land viability. Overall, the authors found that long-term effects on the economy are not large, however, on the regional level, the poorer regions especially in the northeast, where agriculture is most pertinent to their economy suffer large consequences due to the climate change’s effect on land viability etc. The authors suggest to truly understand climate change and its far-reaching implications into the economy more research is needed.
Filho, J., Moraes, G. 2015. Climate change, agriculture, and economic effects on different regions of Brazil. Environment and Developmental Economics 20, 37-56. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayFulltext?type=1&fid=9495812&jid=EDE&volumeId=20&issueId=01&aid=9495767&bodyId=&membershipNumber=&societyETOCSession=
Brazil, sugar cane, climate change, regional effects