Compiling Data To Predict Future Water Supply and Demand- Russia

Russia’s Shiklomanov et al. (2011) compiled data at the State Hydrological Institute from various sources on the past and future characteristics of renewable water supply. All federal districts were evaluated for existing data from 1930 to 2005, and then predictions were made into the year 2020. The distribution of resources is extremely uneven with around 30 times more water volume available in Eastern and Siberia federal districts, than in Nothwestern and Ural federal districts. Water use in Russia breaks down to 63% for industry, 22% municipal, and 15% for agriculture. The areas with the densest populations have a limited supply. In general, however, Russian water resources will increase, and efficiency in usage is predicted to continue to improve. An increase in water supply per capita is predicted for many regions, but due to increasing population and activity, and larger amounts of agricultural irrigation in southern regions, along with decrease in supply may decrease water availability. –Darien Martin
Shiklomanov, I., Babkin, V., Balonishnikov, Zh., 2011. Water resources, their use, and
water availability in Russia: current estimates and forecasts. State Hydrological Institute. 38, 139–148.

          Water resources in Russia have been increasing overall from 1936–2006; however, demand has as well. For past supply trends, data were collected from watersheds with limited human use. From 1983 to 2006, the groundwater supply increased from 17.9 km3/yr to 400km3/year while the safe amount needed changed from 17.5 to 33.5km3/year. Runoff has increased from 20–40% in the most regions. More of this runoff increase occurs during winter and fall. Runoff of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean has increased by 210km3/year in the last 12 years.  A direct correlation with this increase and the increase of air temperature has been observed.
          Future water resources are expected to continue to increase (except in the South, Southwestern Siberia, and Chernozem Center federal districts.) To predict future changes in river discharge, data from the past 25 years were extrapolated with general circulation climate models, and climate change measured from already existing data. Overall, river runoff throughout the country is projected to increase 8–10%, however southern regions mentioned above will lose 5–15% of their runoff. In regions with increasing runoff, there will likely be more discharge especially during winter and summer, and to a lesser extent, during spring floods.
          Overall use is likely to remain the same or decrease in northern regions and to remain the same or increase in southern regions. Municipal water consumption is projected to decrease from improved water use practices; 20% less will be used by 2020. Agricultural use will likely increase from 2005 to 2020, as more irrigation is added; however, irrigation expansion will not exceed levels from the 70’s and 80’s. Industrial water use, will likely decrease or remain the same due to increases in use of recycled water.
          Supply is predicted to increase in regions with more than 95% of the water. The remaining 5% of regions are predicted to decrease have some of the densest populations. Improving water use practices will also help to create more water availability and help to minimize increases in industrial and domestic uses, however growing agriculture will still likely increase water shortages in agricultural regions.

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